A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."