Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
